Outdoor Adventure USA

Introduction

Let's talk about the weather, a topic that can be vitally important to the outdoor enthusiast.

Here's sort of the Agenda for the Net tonight:

1. Nomenclature.
2. Weather Stories.
3. Weather Forecast Tools (We'll look at three tools).
4. Comparison of the Results of the three Forecast Tools.
5. Weather Records

When putting this together, it seemed like it would be hard to fill an hour. Now looking at the pile of information, its hard to tell if we have an hour's worth or two hour's worth for discussion! We'll get through what we can, and what we can't, we can defer to later or your can study up on your own.

This net will be the best when you participate (of course, following the OAUSA Directed Net protocols).

Let's have some fun!

Terminology is important when discussing weather. The definitive source of weather-related definitions is the National Weather Service Glossary.

National Weather Service Glossary
The National Weather Services Glossary contains information on more than 2000 terms, phrases and abbreviations used by the NWS. Many of these terms and abbreviations are used by NWS forecasters to communicate between each other and have been in use for many years and before many NWS products were directly available to the public. It is the purpose of this glossary to aid the general public in better understanding NWS products.
NWS Glossary: https://w1.weather.gov/glossary/

Here are a couple of definitions that are key to our discussion tonight.

Weather
"The state of the atmosphere with respect to wind, temperature, cloudiness, moisture, pressure, etc. Weather refers to these conditions at a given point in time (e.g., today's high temperature)."
Think of "weather" as short-term conditions.

Climate
"The composite or generally prevailing weather conditions of a region, throughout the year, averaged over a series of years."
Think of "climate" as long-term average weather conditions.

Forecast
"A statement of prediction."
Think of a forecast as an educated prediction of the future.

Probability of Precipitation (PoP)
"The probability that precipitation will be reported at a certain location during a specified period of time."
The PoP does not tell you how much it will rain. Rather, the PoP tells you the probability that at least one point in the forecast area will receive measurable precipitation (typically, >=0.01").

Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF)
"A spatial and temporal precipitation forecast that will predict the potential amount of future precipitation for a specified region, or area."
The forecast QPF tells you how much rain can be expected in an area over a specified period of time. QPFs are often summarized by 1, 3, 4, 6, 12 or 24 hour period, and sometimes these time increments of Day, Daytime, and Nighttime are used.

Precipitation
"The process where water vapor condenses in the atmosphere to form water droplets that fall to the Earth as rain, sleet, snow, hail, etc."

Rain
"Precipitation that falls to earth in drops more than 0.5 mm in diameter."
A component of precipitation.

Drizzle
"Precipitation consisting of numerous minute droplets of water less than 0.5 mm (500 micrometers) in diameter."
A component of precipitation.

Mist
"A visible aggregate of minute water particles suspended in the atmosphere that reduces visibility to less than 7 statute miles, but greater than or equal to 5/8 statute miles. It does not reduce visibility as much as fog and is often confused with drizzle."
A component of precipitation.

Sleet
"Sleet is defined as pellets of ice composed of frozen or mostly frozen raindrops or refrozen partially melted snowflakes. These pellets of ice usually bounce after hitting the ground or other hard surfaces. Heavy sleet is a relatively rare event defined as an accumulation of ice pellets covering the ground to a depth of ½" or more."
A component of precipitation.

Snow
"Precipitation in the form of ice crystals, mainly of intricately branched, hexagonal form and often agglomerated into snowflakes, formed directly from the freezing [deposition] of the water vapor in the air."
A component of precipitation.

Hail
"Showery precipitation in the form of irregular pellets or balls of ice more than 5 mm in diameter, falling from a cumulonimbus cloud."
A component of precipitation.

Weather Stories

Anyone that has been an outdoors enthusiast for much time has undoubtedly experienced weather-induced challenges while spending time in the outdoors.

This portion of the Net is for telling Net participants about your outdoor adventure and its weather induced challenges. Please describe your experience, briefly, covering the following Net-related details:

1. Where the outdoor activity took place.
2. The type of weather (rain, snow, wind, heat, cold, etc.) that instigated the weather-induced challenges.
3. The challenges that occurred as a result of the weather.
4. Any equipment damages/losses or injuries attributable to the weather.
5. Any changes in plans (trip cancellation, trip rerouting, ending a trip early, etc.) attributable to the weather.
6. Was the weather forecast consulted before the activity and was the actual weather consistent with the forecast.

Forecast Tools - National Weather Service

The weather forecast information and tools available from the National Weather Service are very good and they are generally available without addition costs to the user (they are not "free" in that they are supported through taxes). The key to success in using NWS forecast information is to make sure you understand the information being provided, including its proper use and limitations. My observation is that most people using the NWS forecast information use it inappropriately.

Here are some highlights of a few of the NWS forecast resources.

1. Extended Forecast Summary
2. Forecast Weather Table
3. Weather Forecast Graphs
4. NWS Application 5. Other Sources of Forecast Information
"Most Americans get weather information from media sources, such as television and radio, the Internet, smart phone applications and newspapers. These media sources are in effect weather retailers, selling weather information to customers through advertising money or subscriptions to services.

But there is yet another layer in the process. For example, let’s say a local newspaper features a weather page. To prepare this page and to do it every day, the newspaper employs a private weather company. The newspaper gives the company its requirements for their weather page. The company fulfills the requirements at the appointed times and sends the bill to the newspaper.

This works in a similar way for television and radio. The daily temperatures and rainfall amounts you see on the evening news were probably first collected and disseminated by the NWS, then gathered by the private weather company, then included in their weather package delivered to the paying television station. The private company may have some weather infrastructure of their own, but largely their data and guidance are provided as public access by the NWS, namely satellite and radar data, and weather model guidance.

In this way the NWS serves as a sort of giant wholesale weather warehouse, where the weather retailers can shop for free to produce their products and services specific to their customers’ needs." From The Weather Guide - A Weather Information Companion for the Forecast Area of the National Weather Service in San Diego, 6th Edition, 2012.

Outdoor enthusiasts generally have access to the same weather and forecast data as the private disseminators, and if you know how to use the data, you can reliably prepare your own forecasts or certainly supplement the information you get from the mainstreet media.

Forecast Tools - AccuWeather

AccuWeather.com provides both no direct cost services as well as paid subscription services for their weather forecast information. The tools I'm presenting tonight come from my AccuWeather Pro subscription which currently runs $199.95 per year for an individual subscription. That sounds like a lot of money, but the reality is it is made up through optimization of decisions that can be impacted by weather conditions. The following AccuWeather Pro features are ones that attracted me to the platform.

*Complete ad-free weather intelligence center
*90-day weather forecasts with 15 days of hourly data
*Access to a wealth of historical and climatological data
*Analyze upcoming weather in incredible detail with RadarPro
+Advanced situational awareness via AccuWeather's complete RadarPro interactive Radar
+High resolution forecast maps from over 25 models, including full ECMWF model suite
+Exclusive access to AccuWeather's proprietary Multi-Model Ensemble and HazWRF models

The items marked with a "*" can be had via an AccuWeather Premium subscription for $79.95 per year. The upgrade to AccuWeather Pro gets one the added features noted with a "+".

While AccuWeather uses much of the same raw forecast data that is generated by NOAA and the NWS, AccuWeather also runs its own proprietary models that give a second opinion on forecasts.

One of the most important features of AccuWeather Pro is their 1-90 day forecast. NWS forecasts generally only go out 7 days or so (NWS seasonal outlooks are a different matter), and for planning, that's just not enough. Sure, there is a good argument that forecasting weather out more than 7 days is Voodoo, but at least with AccuWeather, it is educated Voodoo and I find it useful for further out planning.

Lastly, I like the add free experience of the AccuWeather Pro interface.

Let's look at some AccuWeather Features.

6. AccuWeather Forecast Summary
7. AccuWeather Graphic Long Range Forecast
8. AccuWeather Tabular Long Range Forecast
9. AccuWeather Forecast Maps - Rain
10. AccuWeather Forecast Maps - Temperatures
11. AccuWeather Radar Access
12. AccuWeather Satellite Access
13. AccuWeather Application

Forecast Tools - WeatherBug

WeatherBug is oriented to the casual, mass market user who primarily will access the service via the WeatherBug App. The WeatherBug website and App appear to be completely monetized through advertising, and users will get a dizzying dose of advertisements in even a short visit to the website or App. At one time, there was an option to opt out of ads for payment of a small fee, but that option is now apparently no longer available for the website or App. To use WeatherBug, you will need to tolerate the very high level of ads. It does appear that WeatherBug has created an App, WeatherBug Elite, that apparently removes the advertisements for $19.99. I have not tried it and since this review was geared to WeatherBug, that's what will be my focus.

I don't find that the WeatherBug website or App provide value added features that make it worth putting up with the ads. The information can be obtained through other sources such as no added cost NWS or AccuWeather, and the accessibility of enhanced information via AccuWeather Pro or Premium is much easier to navigate and to get down to the important forecast information. For those reasons, I don't use WeatherBug, the website or the App, for planning trips, adventures, excursions, or work in the great outdoors. Your Mileage May Vary.

Where is WeatherBug suitable? Perhaps for someone that has a very casual interest in the immediate local weather for the purposes of answering questions like, "Should I take an umbrella to work today?" or "Will this wool sweater be too warm today?"

14. WeatherBug Forecast Summary
15. WeatherBug Extended Forecast
16. WeatherBug Forecast Maps
17. WeatherBug Alerts
18. WeatherBug App

Forecast Tools
Comparison of National Weather Service, AccuWeather, and Weather Bug Forecasts 24-36 Hours Out
to Actual Conditions

The purpose of this comparison is to demonstrate the differences between a forecast (a look ahead to future conditions) and actual documented conditions (measured results) for a forecast area.

The point for comparison is Escalante, Utah. The forecast for each location was recorded about 0645 hours on 4/21/2021 using the National Weather Service, AccuWeather, and Weather Bug web sites. The goal was to look ahead at the forecast conditions for a trip to the Escalante, Utah area on 4/22/2021. The following forecasts were reviewed At A Glance, meaning no drill down into details.

National Weather Service Forecast for Escalante, Utah NWS Forecast Summary for 4/22/2021: High 61F; Low 37F; Wind 5-13 mph; Rain 40%

AccuWeather Forecast for Escalante, Utah AccuWeather Forecast Summary for 4/22/2021: High, 62F; Low 33F; Wind N/A; Rain (indicated by slanted blue lines)

Weather Bug Forecast for Escalante, Utah Weather Bug Forecast Summary for 4/22/2021: High, 62F; Low 36F; Wind 10-20 mph; Rain 40%


Actual Measured Results for Escalante, Utah on 4/22/2021
Actuals for 4/22/2021: High, ##F; Low ##F; Wind ## mph; Rain ## inches

19. Let's See Which Forecast Service Most Closely Forecast Today's High and Low Temperatures
The following temperature data was pulled from the National Weather Service's Weather Hazards Data Viewer (WHDV) web site. The WHDV web site is a fantastic place to watch on-going weather events and to look back at past events. The WHDV is based on many different sources of data, including local fire departments, APRS WXNET Stations, schools, government gauges, and private weather observers. In some areas, there are numerous data sources within a few miles, whereas in other areas, the nearest reporting data source could be dozens of miles away and in a completely different area and climatic zone. For this exercise, I chose to compare a forecasts for an area where I also knew there was a temperature reporting stations as well.

National Weather Service, Weather Hazard Data Viewer: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?obs=true& ... popup=true

Results for Escalante

National Weather Service: 61F High, 37F Low
AccuWeather Pro: 63F High, 39F Low
WeatherBug: 62F HIgh, 36F Low
Actual: 61F High, 32F Low

Weather Extremes

The weather out west can vary tremendously, and it is probably a good idea to avoid outdoor adventures during extreme conditions. While experiencing an extreme weather event first hand would likely be interesting, it i important to remember that lifelines available to the outdoors enthusiast will likely be unavailable or very limited during extreme weather events.

Here are some weather extremes, by states, for the west:

California Arizona Nevada Oregon Washington Idaho Utah New Mexico >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Find the Weather Extremes for Your State Here:
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/scec/records/all

Buying & Using Adhesives: a “Field Guide”

Back in October 2020 Kevin (KK6DGL) did a net, well actually it ended up with so much information it became two nets, on “Automotive Adhesives”. Click on this link to review his excellent and comprehensive presentation: viewtopic.php?f=70&t=4353.

Kevin, who is an expert in this area, put together a tremendous amount of useful information on practically every type of adhesive, glue, patch and other gooey, sticky thing we might need in the field to repair everything from a cracked oil pan or gas tank to a torn tent flap. It was very well done, very comprehensive and for me just a bit overwhelming.

My problem was, and still is to be honest, I don’t know a Cyanoacrylate from an Elastomer. Or in reality even what these things are and being somewhere in the bush with a broken whatever wasn’t going to make it any easier to figure out.

So Kevin and I, well Kevin mostly, have come up with what we hope will be useful tools to help you figure out what you need to buy to create a good field repair kit and simple instructions on when to use what. You can think of this repair kit as similar to a good first aid kit. NOT a paramedic’s trauma bag but the type of first aid pack you’d be able to use with some KNOLS or other wilderness first aid training. The instructions are again comparable to an emergency first aid pamphlet, designed to help you deal with a cut or broken bone, not a manual on how to perform surgery in the field.

I’ve attached two pdf files. The first will give you a shopping list of what my kit contains and the second is a quick reference for when to use what. I’ve included a picture of the instruction sheet but you can download these pdf files by clicking on the links below. I recommend you print out the use instructions, which are formatted to fit on an 8 ½ x 11” letter size page in landscape (sideways) mode. You can then have it laminated at some office supply store and keep it in your adhesive repair kit for easy access and quick reference.

Shopping List, download pdf file:

JPG OF INSTRUCTIONS:
Download pdf file of instructions:

The following photos are pictures of the products I selected to fill out my adhesive field repair kit and how I carry all this stuff.

The containers are Mr. Lid salad size containers (I just happen to have these) but Rubber Maid, or Tupperware or any of that kind of protective container should work. I don’t recommend you just leave these things loose in a bag as a split tube of silicon rubber, a leaking bottle of Super Glue, or anything else for that matter, would make a frightful mess. First, if it’s protected in a good container it’s less likely to get damaged and second, it’s less likely to make a HUGE gooey mess if the area affected by the leaking whatever can be limited.


The actual brands I purchased do not imply any endorsement of any particular product. They are brands I know or products that seemed to have good reviews and they are all in Kevin’s list of products. Many of them I’ve never used so have no firsthand knowledge of their efficacy or shelf life. I do, however, suggest you purchase small packages whenever possible, even if this seems a more expensive way to acquire these products. You will probably not use them often and many do have a limited shelf life, sometimes a fairly short useable life after having been opened. Having a big old economy size tube of whatever that has become plugged up or gone solid isn’t going to help you much. So I recommend buying small amounts and plan on replacing, or at least regularly checking, any product once you have opened the package and exposed it to air.
I also suggest you refer to Kevin’s full net article (see link above) as he includes several different products for each type of adhesive or patch discussed. But if you want to keep it simple you can use my shopping list (pdf file link above). All of these products, or their equivalents, are available on-line through Amazon and many are carried by home DIY centers.

Thanks for early check in, KF6KOC Randy and KF6RGR Becky.